Saddam’s reckless and unforgiving management style keeps his troops in line but gives Western analysts fits. Since the gulf war, the Iraqi dictator’s utter unpredictability has frustrated attempts to psychoanalyze his behavior–and figure out what he might do next. At times his actions seem to defy logic. Why, for instance, did he choose to provoke the United States just when he was about to clinch the oil-for-food deal he’d demanded for so long? In fact, it might not be as crazy as it looks. Saddam is far more concerned with flexing for his Arab neighbors–and reminding his own Republican Guard that there’s a price to be paid for crossing him.
Saddam had to do something. In recent months, his power base has eroded. Even Saddam’s top advisers began to doubt his staying power. Ever paranoid of coup plotters, he rarely sleeps in the same place two nights in a row, has a mustachioed double to stand in for him at public appearances and routinely takes over the homes of Iraqi citizens for government meetings. ““A Joe Blow family might get kicked out of its apartment for a few days, out of the blue, to make way for a cabinet meeting,’’ says Michael Eisenstadt of the Washington Institute for Mideast Policy.
But, as the saying goes, even paranoids have real enemies. Saddam arrested hundreds of coup plotters earlier this year. Among them were Republican Guard officers. Dissidents may even have infiltrated the ultra-elite Special Republican Guard in charge of policing the four main roads into Baghdad. When more than 1,000 Iranian troops crossed into Iraq to support northern Kurds in July, Saddam needed to prove he was still in control.
If his recent attack on the Kurds was staged to impress his Republican Guard supporters, as many analysts believe, the plan may be working. Last Thursday, Baghdad boasted it had fired three missiles into the no-fly zone, ““scaring’’ the United States away. In fact, the missiles didn’t get anywhere near any coalition planes. But the risky maneuver got the attention–and quiet admiration–of Saddam’s neighbors. ““He’s trying to divide the coalition and win his way back into the Arab heart,’’ says State Department spokesman Nicholas Burns. Saddam may have also had another, more prosaic reason for attacking. ““For nearly two years the world has been talking about Saddam less and less,’’ says Haifa University’s Amatzia Baram. ““He just couldn’t stand it.’’ Saddam’s outsize ego, after all, is one thing that all his would-be mind readers can agree on.
